サイトアイコン ごみ投資家の米国株配当成長投資

アセット・アロケーションを考える その1

&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad1" id&equals;"quads-ad1" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;1px 0 1px 0&semi;text-align&colon;center&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<p>投資の闘志を燃やす前にアセット・アロケーションを考える。<br &sol;>&NewLine;<b><br &sol;><&sol;b><br &sol;>&NewLine;<b>・先進国債券 74% ドル建て<&sol;b><br &sol;>&NewLine;<b>・先進国株式 20% ドル建て<&sol;b><br &sol;>&NewLine;<b>・新興国株式  4% ドル建て<&sol;b><br &sol;>&NewLine;<b>・日本株式    2% 円建て<&sol;b><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>98%を外貨で運用するのはどうかと思う・・・<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><a name&equals;'more'><&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><b>運用資産の期待リターンとリスク<&sol;b><&sol;p>&NewLine;<div style&equals;"background&colon; &num;fff&semi; width&colon; 390px&semi;">&NewLine;<img src&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;chart&period;apis&period;google&period;com&sol;chart&quest;cht&equals;p&amp&semi;chs&equals;388x160&amp&semi;chp&equals;4&period;71239&amp&semi;chl&equals;&percnt;E6&percnt;97&percnt;A5&percnt;E6&percnt;9C&percnt;AC&percnt;E5&percnt;82&percnt;B5&percnt;E5&percnt;88&percnt;B8&percnt;200&percnt;EF&percnt;BC&percnt;85&percnt;7C&percnt;E6&percnt;97&percnt;A5&percnt;E6&percnt;9C&percnt;AC&percnt;E6&percnt;A0&percnt;AA&percnt;E5&percnt;BC&percnt;8F&percnt;202&percnt;EF&percnt;BC&percnt;85&percnt;7C&percnt;E5&percnt;85&percnt;88&percnt;E9&percnt;80&percnt;B2&percnt;E5&percnt;9B&percnt;BD&percnt;E5&percnt;82&percnt;B5&percnt;E5&percnt;88&percnt;B8&percnt;2074&percnt;EF&percnt;BC&percnt;85&percnt;7C&percnt;E5&percnt;85&percnt;88&percnt;E9&percnt;80&percnt;B2&percnt;E5&percnt;9B&percnt;BD&percnt;E6&percnt;A0&percnt;AA&percnt;E5&percnt;BC&percnt;8F&percnt;2020&percnt;EF&percnt;BC&percnt;85&percnt;7C&percnt;E6&percnt;96&percnt;B0&percnt;E8&percnt;88&percnt;88&percnt;E5&percnt;9B&percnt;BD&percnt;E6&percnt;A0&percnt;AA&percnt;E5&percnt;BC&percnt;8F&percnt;204&percnt;EF&percnt;BC&percnt;85&amp&semi;chco&equals;0065FF&amp&semi;chd&equals;t&colon;0&comma;2&period;21&comma;73&period;75&comma;20&period;41&comma;3&period;63&amp&semi;chf&equals;bg&comma;s&comma;ffffff" height&equals;"165" style&equals;"border&colon; 1px solid rgb&lpar;204&comma; 204&comma; 204&rpar;&semi; padding&colon; 5px 0px&semi;" width&equals;"400" &sol;><a href&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;guide&period;fund-no-umi&period;com&sol;tools&sol;aa&period;html" style&equals;"color&colon; &num;999999&semi; float&colon; right&semi; font-size&colon; 10px&semi; line-height&colon; 100&percnt;&semi; margin&colon; 0&semi; padding&colon; 0&semi; text-decoration&colon; none&semi;">by 長期投資予想/アセットアロケーション分析<&sol;a><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p><br style&equals;"clear&colon; both&semi;" &sol;><br &sol;>&NewLine;<br &sol;>&NewLine;<b>長期投資による運用結果の予想<br &sol;>&NewLine;<&sol;b><&sol;p>&NewLine;<div style&equals;"background&colon; &num;fff&semi; border&colon; solid 1px &num;ccc&semi; width&colon; 490px&semi;">&NewLine;<img src&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;chart&period;apis&period;google&period;com&sol;chart&quest;cht&equals;lc&amp&semi;chco&equals;CCD5E6&comma;A3B5D4&comma;668DC2&comma;4774AB&comma;33567F&comma;4774AB&comma;668DC2&comma;A3B5D4&comma;CCD5E6&comma;ffcc00&comma;ff5555&comma;339933&amp&semi;chxt&equals;x&comma;y&comma;r&amp&semi;chxr&equals;0&comma;0&comma;30&comma;5&vert;1&comma;0&comma;5000&comma;1000&amp&semi;chxl&equals;2&colon;&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D10&percnt;25&percnt;204496&period;2&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D20&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;203612&period;9&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D30&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;203088&period;4&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D40&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;202698&period;6&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D50&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;202379&period;7&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D60&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;202098&period;5&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D70&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;201833&period;6&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D80&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;201567&period;4&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&vert;&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;8A&percnt;E4&percnt;BD&percnt;8D90&percnt;25&percnt;20&percnt;201259&period;5&percnt;E4&percnt;B8&percnt;87&percnt;E5&percnt;86&percnt;86&amp&semi;chxp&equals;2&comma;90&comma;72&comma;62&comma;54&comma;48&comma;42&comma;37&comma;31&comma;25&amp&semi;chxs&equals;2&comma;111111&comma;12&comma;-1&comma;t&comma;555555&amp&semi;chg&equals;0&comma;10&comma;1&comma;1&amp&semi;chds&equals;0&comma;5000&amp&semi;chls&equals;3&vert;3&vert;3&vert;3&vert;4&vert;3&vert;3&vert;3&vert;3&vert;3&comma;6&comma;4&vert;3&comma;6&comma;4&vert;3&comma;6&comma;4&amp&semi;chem&equals;y&semi;s&equals;bubble&lowbar;text&lowbar;small&semi;d&equals;bbbr&comma;&percnt;E6&percnt;9C&percnt;9F&percnt;E5&percnt;BE&percnt;85&percnt;E3&percnt;83&percnt;AA&percnt;E3&percnt;82&percnt;BF&percnt;E3&percnt;83&percnt;BC&percnt;E3&percnt;83&percnt;B3&comma;ffffcc&semi;ds&equals;9&semi;dp&equals;10&vert;y&semi;s&equals;bubble&lowbar;text&lowbar;small&semi;d&equals;bbbr&comma;&percnt;E6&percnt;9C&percnt;80&percnt;E9&percnt;A0&percnt;BB&percnt;E5&percnt;80&percnt;A4&comma;ffdddd&semi;ds&equals;10&semi;dp&equals;8&vert;y&semi;s&equals;bubble&lowbar;text&lowbar;small&semi;d&equals;bbtr&comma;&percnt;E7&percnt;B7&percnt;8F&percnt;E6&percnt;8A&percnt;95&percnt;E8&percnt;B3&percnt;87&percnt;E9&percnt;A1&percnt;8D&comma;ddffdd&semi;ds&equals;11&semi;dp&equals;10&vert;&amp&semi;chd&equals;e&colon;CmE9HWKDNIQoUlZEeIj1qQxd5j&comma;CmEnGrI-LjOcRqVRZRduiqoKuP&comma;CmEYGOISKjNDP1S5WRZ&period;eFilnh&comma;CmEMF4HuJwL-OaRET-XKaoeaii&comma;CmEAFjHPJELCNMPhSDUyXwa-ed&comma;CmD2FQGyIbKMMFOHQUSrVNX7a3&comma;CmDrE9GUHyJVK&period;MwOoQoSxVCXe&comma;CmDfEoF1HGIcJ2LVM5OjQSSHUE&comma;CmDPENFNGQHVIdJnK0MENXOtQH&comma;CmEEFsHeJdLnOBQpTjWwaSeLid&comma;CmD5FTGxIVJ-LsNfPYRWTaVjXy&comma;CmDwE5GDHNIWJgKqL0M9OHPRQb&amp&semi;chs&equals;450x300&amp&semi;chf&equals;bg&comma;s&comma;ffffff" height&equals;"264" style&equals;"padding&colon; 5px 0px 5px 5px&semi;" width&equals;"400" &sol;><img src&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;chart&period;apis&period;google&period;com&sol;chart&quest;cht&equals;bhs&amp&semi;chbh&equals;r&comma;0&comma;0&amp&semi;chco&equals;a0d0ff&amp&semi;chxt&equals;x&comma;y&amp&semi;chxs&equals;0&comma;ffffff&comma;0&comma;0&comma;&lowbar;&vert;1&comma;ffffff&comma;0&comma;0&comma;&lowbar;&amp&semi;chd&equals;t&colon;0&comma;13&period;79&comma;14&period;35&comma;14&period;94&comma;15&period;55&comma;16&period;18&comma;16&period;84&comma;17&period;53&comma;18&period;24&comma;18&period;98&comma;19&period;75&comma;20&period;56&comma;21&period;39&comma;22&period;25&comma;23&period;15&comma;24&period;09&comma;25&period;06&comma;26&period;06&comma;27&period;10&comma;28&period;18&comma;29&period;30&comma;30&period;46&comma;31&period;67&comma;32&period;91&comma;34&period;20&comma;35&period;53&comma;36&period;90&comma;38&period;32&comma;39&period;79&comma;41&period;30&comma;42&period;86&comma;44&period;46&comma;46&period;11&comma;47&period;81&comma;49&period;55&comma;51&period;33&comma;53&period;16&comma;55&period;03&comma;56&period;94&comma;58&period;89&comma;60&period;87&comma;62&period;89&comma;64&period;93&comma;67&period;00&comma;69&period;09&comma;71&period;20&comma;73&period;31&comma;75&period;42&comma;77&period;53&comma;79&period;62&comma;81&period;68&comma;83&period;71&comma;85&period;69&comma;87&period;62&comma;89&period;47&comma;91&period;23&comma;92&period;88&comma;94&period;41&comma;95&period;80&comma;97&period;03&comma;98&period;08&comma;98&period;92&comma;99&period;54&comma;99&period;90&comma;100&period;00&comma;99&period;79&comma;99&period;27&comma;98&period;40&comma;97&period;17&comma;95&period;56&comma;93&period;54&comma;91&period;12&comma;88&period;27&comma;85&period;00&comma;81&period;31&comma;77&period;21&comma;72&period;73&comma;67&period;88&comma;62&period;72&comma;57&period;31&comma;51&period;69&comma;45&period;96&comma;40&period;19&comma;34&period;50&comma;28&period;98&comma;23&period;74&comma;18&period;89&comma;14&period;52&comma;10&period;71&comma;7&period;52&comma;4&period;98&comma;3&period;05&comma;1&period;71&comma;0&period;84&comma;0&period;35&comma;0&period;12&comma;0&period;03&comma;0&period;00&comma;0&period;00&comma;0&period;00&comma;0&period;00&comma;0&period;00&amp&semi;chds&equals;0&comma;100&amp&semi;chma&equals;0&comma;0&comma;0&comma;8&amp&semi;chs&equals;30x300&amp&semi;chf&equals;bg&comma;s&comma;ffffff" style&equals;"padding&colon; 5px 5px 5px 0px&semi;" &sol;><&sol;p>&NewLine;<div id&equals;"IDlinecap" style&equals;"font-size&colon; 12px&semi; line-height&colon; 1&period;5&semi; margin&colon; 0&semi; padding&colon; 5px 18px&semi;">&NewLine;期待リターン:3&period;96% リスク:12&period;83%<br &sol;>元本:203万円 総投資額:3万円 期間:30å¹´<br &sol;>(期待値:2692&period;6 標準偏差:1425&period;6 中央値:2379&period;7 最頻値:1858&period;7)<&sol;div>&NewLine;<p><a href&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;guide&period;fund-no-umi&period;com&sol;tools&sol;aa&period;html" style&equals;"color&colon; &num;999999&semi; float&colon; right&semi; font-size&colon; 10px&semi; line-height&colon; 100&percnt;&semi; margin&colon; 0&semi; padding&colon; 0&semi; text-decoration&colon; none&semi;">by 長期投資予想/アセットアロケーション分析<&sol;a><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p><br style&equals;"clear&colon; both&semi;" &sol;><br &sol;>&NewLine;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad2" id&equals;"quads-ad2" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;2px 0 2px 0&semi;text-align&colon;center&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">30年間の総投資額は&nbsp&semi;1283&period;0万円&nbsp&semi;です。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">いちばん起こりそうな運用結果は&nbsp&semi;1858&period;7万円&nbsp&semi;です(最頻値)。年率にして約&nbsp&semi;1&period;2&nbsp&semi;%です。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">運用結果が&nbsp&semi;1833&period;6万円&nbsp&semi;以上になる可能性は高く(確率70%)、<br &sol;>もしかしたら&nbsp&semi;2379&period;7万円&nbsp&semi;以上になるかもしれません(確率50%)。<br &sol;>しかし、&nbsp&semi;3088&period;4万円&nbsp&semi;以上になる可能性はそれほど高くありません(確率30%)。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">期待リターンの複利では&nbsp&semi;2692&period;6万円&nbsp&semi;になります(期待値)。ただしその確率は&nbsp&semi;40&period;2%&nbsp&semi;です。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">元本割れする確率は&nbsp&semi;10&period;7%&nbsp&semi;です。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<li style&equals;"background-color&colon; &num;efefef&semi; font-family&colon; Verdana&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi; line-height&colon; 16&period;8999996185303px&semi; padding-bottom&colon; 0&period;5em&semi;">表示される確率や金額は「連続複利年率の収益率が正規分布する」ことを前提に計算されています。<&sol;li>&NewLine;<p>&NewLine;<b>アセットアロケーション分析<br &sol;>&NewLine;<&sol;b><&sol;p>&NewLine;<div style&equals;"background&colon; &num;fff&semi; width&colon; 490px&semi;">&NewLine;<img src&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;chart&period;apis&period;google&period;com&sol;chart&quest;chd&equals;e&colon;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&comma;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&amp&semi;cht&equals;s&amp&semi;chxt&equals;x&comma;y&comma;x&comma;y&amp&semi;chxr&equals;0&comma;2&period;27&comma;29&period;38&vert;1&comma;-0&period;24&comma;10&period;49&amp&semi;chxl&equals;2&percnt;3A&percnt;7C&percnt;EF&percnt;BE&percnt;98&percnt;EF&percnt;BD&percnt;BD&percnt;EF&percnt;BD&percnt;B8&lpar;&percnt;25&rpar;&percnt;7C3&percnt;3A&percnt;7C&percnt;EF&percnt;BE&percnt;98&percnt;EF&percnt;BE&percnt;80&percnt;EF&percnt;BD&percnt;B0&percnt;EF&percnt;BE&percnt;9D&percnt;7C&lpar;&percnt;25&rpar;&percnt;20&percnt;7C&amp&semi;chxp&equals;2&comma;50&vert;3&comma;50&comma;44&amp&semi;chm&equals;o&comma;7F92FF&comma;1&comma;1&comma;6&vert;c&comma;ff0000&comma;0&comma;0&comma;10&amp&semi;chs&equals;488x280&amp&semi;chf&equals;bg&comma;s&comma;ffffff" height&equals;"226" style&equals;"border&colon; 1px solid rgb&lpar;204&comma; 204&comma; 204&rpar;&semi; padding&colon; 5px 0px&semi;" width&equals;"400" &sol;><a href&equals;"http&colon;&sol;&sol;guide&period;fund-no-umi&period;com&sol;tools&sol;aa&period;html" style&equals;"color&colon; &num;999999&semi; float&colon; right&semi; font-size&colon; 10px&semi; line-height&colon; 100&percnt;&semi; margin&colon; 0&semi; padding&colon; 0&semi; text-decoration&colon; none&semi;">by 長期投資予想/アセットアロケーション分析<&sol;a><&sol;div>&NewLine;<p><br style&equals;"clear&colon; both&semi;" &sol;><br &sol;>&NewLine;<br &sol;>&NewLine;市場の最悪の事態を想定<br style&equals;"background-color&colon; white&semi; color&colon; &num;333333&semi; font-family&colon; メイリオ&comma; Meiryo&comma; Verdana&comma; Helvetica&comma; 'ヒラギノ角ゴ Pro W3'&comma; 'Hiragino Kaku Gothic Pro'&comma; 'ï¼­ï¼³ Pゴシック'&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; 16px&semi; line-height&colon; 26&period;9878406524658px&semi;" &sol;> <strong style&equals;"background-color&colon; white&semi; color&colon; &num;333333&semi; font-family&colon; メイリオ&comma; Meiryo&comma; Verdana&comma; Helvetica&comma; 'ヒラギノ角ゴ Pro W3'&comma; 'Hiragino Kaku Gothic Pro'&comma; 'ï¼­ï¼³ Pゴシック'&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; 16px&semi; line-height&colon; 26&period;9878406524658px&semi;">投資金額×{期待リターン-(2׿¨™æº–偏差)}<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong style&equals;"background-color&colon; white&semi; color&colon; &num;333333&semi; font-family&colon; メイリオ&comma; Meiryo&comma; Verdana&comma; Helvetica&comma; 'ヒラギノ角ゴ Pro W3'&comma; 'Hiragino Kaku Gothic Pro'&comma; 'ï¼­ï¼³ Pゴシック'&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; 16px&semi; line-height&colon; 26&period;9878406524658px&semi;">想定される最大損失額<br &sol;>=203万円×{3&period;96%-(2×12&period;83%)}<br &sol;>=203万円×(3&period;96%-25&period;66%)<br &sol;>=203万円×(-21&period;7%)<br &sol;>=-440&comma;510円<&sol;strong>&NewLine;<&excl;-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v&period; 3&period;0&period;4 -->&NewLine;<div class&equals;"quads-location quads-ad3" id&equals;"quads-ad3" style&equals;"float&colon;none&semi;margin&colon;1px 0 1px 0&semi;text-align&colon;center&semi;">&NewLine;&NewLine;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&NewLine;

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